Declines and Damage

In this week’s Roar: Disruptions in global air and ocean freight, growing economic concerns, an update on the US–UK trade deal, details from the Global Supply Chain Risk Survey, and how inventory forecasting is changing the industry.

In Q2, US trade policies impacted more than Chinese imports. They’ve also disrupted global air and ocean freight, affecting Europe who is now dealing with unstable shipping volumes and unpredictable demand. The ocean freight market has shown some signs of stabilization, but remains weak, with carriers using blank sailings to control overcapacity. An uncertain future regarding US tariffs on EU imports threatens even further disruption. A brief spike in ocean bookings after the US-China truce wasn’t enough to reverse the sluggishness in the global market. For air freight some policy changes, like the removal of the de minimis exemption, have impacted demand and caused rate fluctuations across major trade lanes.

The growing economic concerns tied to US-China trade tensions highlight the impact of increased tariffs and a lack of new trade agreements. In May, the Port of Los Angeles saw a 5% year-over-year decline in throughput, breaking a 10-month growth streak. Imports dropped 9% from the prior year and 19% from April, with inbound volumes falling 25% below projections. Despite a temporary tariff pause stabilizing container flows from China, some economists are warning of even greater damage. For example, the average American household’s purchasing power could go down by $2,500 annually.

The White House issued an executive order that advances the implementation of the US–UK trade deal announced in May. The order emphasizes expanded US export access, especially for beef, ethanol, and agriculture while improving national security and economic ties. Provisions include a tariff-rate quota allowing 100,000 UK-made cars into the US at a reduced 10% tariff, removal of tariffs on UK aerospace goods, and potential future TRQs on UK steel and aluminum. The deal also targets regulatory cooperation on pharmaceuticals and commits both nations to ongoing negotiations on security-sensitive sectors.

The 2025 WTW Global Supply Chain Risk Survey reveals that organizations are overhauling their risk strategies in response to increasing global complexity. Companies are prioritizing cybersecurity, geopolitical instability, and supply chain transparency, with enhanced use of digital tools like supply chain mapping. Despite progress, only 8% feel fully in control, and 63% report higher-than-expected losses. Top emerging risks include geopolitical tension (19%), inflation (18%), and rising cybersecurity threats (16%). While pandemic-related concerns have declined, digital transformation and supplier collaboration are gaining importance. Firms favor incremental changes, with leadership oversight and internal risk tools now central to long-term supply chain resilience efforts.

Promise may finally becoming the reality. AI-driven inventory forecasting is changing the game for many supply chains. Instead of relying on outdated spreadsheets and gut feelings, brands can now tap into real-time data from sales, ads, and logistics to better predict demand and manage inventories. These tools help avoid costly overstock and stockouts, automate reordering, and keep teams on the same page across marketing, sales, and operations. The results? Shorter lead times, better cash flow, and happier customers. While this type of change isn’t always easy, teams need to trust the tech and clean up their data, AI forecasting is fast becoming a must-have advantage for businesses that want to stay competitive.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights below.