Be Very, Very Careful

In this week’s Roar: The long-awaited tariff ruling, air cargo volume up, the new America’s Maritime Action Plan, the why behind decarbonization, and the problems of scaling AI technology.

In the news we’ve all been waiting for, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the broad “reciprocal” tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in a 6–3 decision. The invalidated trade measures, applied across countries and product categories since February 2025, accounted for more than $175 billion in collected duties that may now be subject to refund, though guidance from U.S. Customs and Border Protection is still pending. Importantly, some antidumping and countervailing duties, as well as other sector-specific trade remedies, remain in effect. While this decision represents a major trade policy shift, the administration has already announced a new 15% Global Section 122 tariff as an alternative tariff mechanism. Importers should not assume the issue is going away anytime soon.

An early Lunar New Year fueled a 7% year-over-year rise in global air cargo volume for January, which is the strongest gain since 2025. However, average spot rates remained about flat with a small 1% decline. Experts say most of the January growth was due to the time of year, and market signals remain mixed amid ongoing (though less pronounced) uncertainty. Let’s hope for a calmer year in trade policy. For its part, IATA predicts 2.6% growth for 2026.

The Trump Administration released its America’s Maritime Action Plan (MAP) on February 13, outlining broad reforms aimed at strengthening the U.S. merchant marine and shipyard industrial base. Some proposals include a Maritime Security Trust Fund, a new fee on foreign-built vessels, the creation of a Strategic Commercial Fleet, and changes to cargo-preference policies. The expectation is that these initiatives will serve as a foundation for any upcoming maritime legislation submitted to Congress.

Despite the Trump administration’s opposition and a year-long delay in the International Maritime Organization’s decision on a global carbon price, shipping companies continue to aggressively invest in decarbonization. Dual-fuel ship orders are up to 74% of all new container and vehicle carriers. Companies have invested $150 billion, citing regional climate rules and long-term business drivers as the reasons for adopting green technology and alternative fuels.

Even though they recognize the potential of generative AI, most procurement teams are stuck in the pilot or exploration phase, with only 5% successfully scaling the technology. EFESO’s 2026 CPO Pulse Report points to trust barriers, data reliability concerns, regulatory issues, and skills shortages as the biggest obstacles. Although some leaders see value in areas such as contract analysis, most remain cautious and have shifted to selective use cases that deliver proven impact rather than widespread deployment.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights below.