2025: A Year to Remember (or Forget?)

In this week’s Roar: The top stories of 2025, China’s trade surplus with Europe, surging container rates, U.S. tariff revenues explained, and the resiliency of global trade.

Everyone is waiting to see the true impact of U.S. tariffs over time, and data from the USITC has some early answers. According to the U.S. Department, new U.S. tariffs have generated $124.5 billion in customs revenue from January to September 2025, with the average effective tariff rate now at 10.65%, up from 2.2% in January. China faces the highest effective rate, at 37.1%, while steel, aluminum, and cars are the most tariffed goods. Nearly 87.3% of Canadian and Mexican imports now claim tariff-free USMCA status to avoid higher duties.

There is further evidence that U.S. tariffs are affecting trade between other countries. China’s dominance in global trade continues to spark concerns among European policymakers and businesses. Recent data shows that China’s trade surplus with Europe now exceeds the U.S. surplus, prompting the EU to consider “decisive action,” such as tariffs or efforts to reduce dependencies and diversify its supply chains, but change will depend on the bloc’s ability to unite and China’s willingness to collaborate.

Ocean container rates to the U.S. East Coast surged in December, with spot rates jumping thanks to strong Asian imports fueling demand and port congestion pushing capacity into the new year. In contrast, the West Coast is still waiting on recovery, although January is set for more available capacity as blank sailings decrease. Shippers are facing growing operational delays, especially eastbound from Asia and Europe, and that’s highlighting the need for proactive risk management and negotiation for reliable on-time deliveries in 2026.

In some areas, global trade remained resilient in 2025 despite volatile trade policies. This was largely driven by the agility of air cargo, which surged to move goods ahead of tariffs. Air cargo traffic is forecast to rise 2.6% in 2026, while passenger traffic is expected to see 4.9% growth. However, even though industry profits and revenues are at record highs, there are still challenges, as slow progress on sustainable aviation fuel threatens decarbonization and energy transition.

The top logistics stories of 2025 highlight a year of change and uncertainty. President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the country’s exit from the Paris Agreement will reshape trade and climate policy for years to come. Also, in many places around the world, major labor agreements brought greater port stability while major trade lanes shifted. Domestic changes in the U.S. saw the creation of the first U.S. transcontinental railroad, evolving driver regulations, and structural changes to LTL pricing and classifications.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights below.