Fire on Board!

In this week’s Roar: Survey says… AI is changing supply chains, Germany is breaking up with China, a glut in container shipping, an improvement for ‘Shippers’, and an old but still important maritime law.

First, a tariff update:

• Recent tariff news has been limited, with only a handful of country-specific changes announced over the past few weeks. The most recent is a reciprocal tariff reduction for Switzerland and Liechtenstein.
• Other news includes that the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue a decision in the coming weeks on the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). U.S. Customs has reported that tariff revenue has surpassed $200 million, underscoring the significant fiscal impact of the IEEPA tariffs. Last week, the Court of International Trade held that liquidation of a customs entry does not bar importers from seeking refunds of IEEPA tariffs in cases currently before the court, should the Supreme Court ultimately determine the tariffs are unlawful.
• Lastly, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has provided the trade with an Unstacking Certain Tariffs Chart, as “a courtesy for informational purposes only, and it does not constitute an official interpretation of the application of tariffs by CBP or the U.S. government.”

ASCM’s 2026 Top 10 Supply Chain Trends show how AI, automation, and digital tools are fundamentally changing the game for supply chains. Geopolitical shifts are forcing companies to rethink where and how they source, while sustainability and circularity are getting more important than ever. The workforce needs to get up to speed with new tech, especially AI and cybersecurity. According to ASCM, leaders who embrace digitization, diversify suppliers, and develop their teams will be ready to take on the challenges ahead.

Germany’s move to “divorce” itself from China may highlight an emerging trend. Countries worldwide are reconsidering their exposure to cheap Chinese imports and leaning toward protectionism. Germany, once a leader in globalization, is now backing tariffs, tighter regulations, and buy-European policies as Chinese goods outcompete local industries. It’s not just a German story, because Mexico, for instance, is also eyeing tariffs on Chinese imports. Is this an indicator of a broader global shift where more nations are seeking to protect homegrown industries and reduce reliance on China?

Container shipping is facing a potential glut as record new vessel orders drive fleet expansion far beyond just replacement needs. The global orderbook has surged to 11.61 million TEU, nearly 35% of the existing fleet, after a 2025 ordering spree. Chinese shipyards continue to dominate, but South Korea is gaining ground. At a time when demand growth is uncertain and freight rates are volatile, the industry may struggle to absorb all of this new capacity without severely impacting rates through 2029.

FTR’s latest Shippers Conditions Index showed modest improvement in October, rising to 0.3 from September’s -0.5, signaling a slightly more favorable environment for shippers. While weak freight demand benefits shippers for now, FTR warns that this could set the stage for volatility if demand rebounds quickly. The outlook remains neutral through mid-2026, with mild weakening expected later.

General Average (GA) is an old but still important maritime law where cargo owners share costs when extraordinary events happen, which can include actions like having to jettison cargo for the safety of the entire ship. With incidents like fires and accidents becoming more common (and more expensive) on megaships, GA remains highly relevant. Shippers should know the basics, work closely with insurers, and be prepared for possible costs or delays if GA is declared.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights below.