Ocean Carriers For the Win

In this week’s Roar: AI and supply chains, air cargo predictions, surging container imports, updates for the NMFC, and how ocean carriers are winning.

Geopolitics remains one of the greatest threats to global supply chains. Is AI the solution? At present, AI is already helping to manage several challenges, including climate change, regional tensions, and trade conflicts. In the face of these and other issues, AI can improve things through predictive analytics, optimized logistics, and better resource allocation. This can help supply chains better work through complexities and align with sustainability and regulatory demands while improving visibility, decision-making, and risk management.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is projecting that global air cargo volumes will increase by 5.8% year-over-year in 2025, reaching 72.5 million tons, pushed up by robust demand and the industry’s recovery trajectory. That demand continues to be driven by e-commerce and fallout from the issues on the Red Sea. Despite inflation, geopolitical tensions, and capacity constraints, the sector remains resilient, but there are concerns about achieving pre-pandemic revenue levels, with expected total revenues in 2025 at $149.4 billion, below the 2021 peak.

Thanks to concerns over a strike and uncertainty over tariff increases, the National Retail Federation (NRF) is predicting a surge in containerized imports through U.S. ports in the coming months. Heightened port activity is already happening as retailers start to accelerate shipments in the hopes of escaping bottlenecks. Container volumes usually peak just ahead of any major shopping season but for now, the timeline has shifted to earlier than usual, reflecting an adjustment to geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Updates to the 2025 NMFC (National Motor Freight Classification) focus on changes that are aimed at enhancing clarity and efficiency in the US less-than-truckload (LTL) sector. The changes will be implemented in phases, with the first batch taking place in the first quarter of 2025. Revisions will include adjustments to classification codes, packaging requirements, and density thresholds, and their purpose is to improve the precision of freight classification, leading to better optimized pricing, reduced disputes, and more efficient and safe transportation.

Volatile market conditions have translated into a win for ocean carriers, making them the “outright financial winners” in an unpredictable year, as they’ve been able to capitalize on their flexibility and sustained demand. Capacity management, rate increases, and the ability to adapt to demand surges during peak seasons have all led to their strong financial performance in the last year. Even in the face of fluctuating trade volumes and increasing regulatory pressures, they’ve remained resilient and profitable by adjusting fleet deployments and chartering strategies.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights below.