The road to supply chain recovery from the trade actions taken by the new US administration in 2025 was always going to be long. Even with a 90-day reprieve for the bulk of China tariffs and talk of other country-specific “deals” being struck, lasting supply chain damage has been done. However, the recent (and perhaps temporary) reduction of tariffs on China is quickly setting some important things in motion, including speeding up the urgency for supply chains to face the difficult road ahead.

Tariff disruption and uncertainty lead to more than just higher importing costs. There are extreme short- and long-term impacts companies need to prepare for with every new trade deal. Now, with the lynchpin China agreement in place, shipping is about to become more difficult for importers. And many other supply chain disruptions will take time to work through the system. Decisive action and planning by companies now is the best way to mitigate the cost and problems that are inevitably on the way.

Where do supply chains stand today?

The arrival and impact of tariffs on supply chains were quicker and at a greater magnitude than most people reasonably expected. It should be clear that even with concrete signs of optimism that the multi-front trade war being waged by the US is softening, the impact will be long-lasting and severe.

It’s important to note that many of the impacts from duties began before the first tariffs were officially announced. In late 2024, front-loading imports in anticipation of tariffs led to the issues of overstuffed warehouses and elevated shipping costs as companies raced to import goods before the first tariffs went into effect. Then, with the arrival of tariffs in April, the opposite happened as demand sank due to the uncertainty surrounding global trade. Blank sailings, the bullwhip effect, inventory planning headaches, and global trade delays became the reality for supply chains.

Now, with a 90-day agreement being struck, supply chains need to wake up. The next few weeks will be crucial as companies restart production and get products moving.

How long will the disruption last?

Supply chains can’t just turn on again. Even with the 90-day tariff reduction, things will not return to normal overnight. There are short-term and long-term challenges to doing so, with the first being time. Consider that the transit time of simply moving goods from China to various parts of the US can take from 30 to 55 days. For example:

• China to Port of LA/ Long Beach: 30 days avg. transit
• China to Port of Houston: 45 days avg. transit
• China to Chicago (rail): 45 days avg. transit
• China to Port of NJ/ NY: 55 days avg. transit

To illustrate the time-delayed impact of tariffs and how long any resolution will take to be felt, the impact of the April 10 tariffs is just now appearing in the US. Here’s when different regions will feel it:

• West Coast: Mid-May 2025
• Midwest/ Gulf Coast: Late May 2025
• East Coast: Early June 2025

And physically moving products are just part of the difficulty of turning supply chains on again. There is no on-off switch. Aside from the 30 to 55 days in-transit orders take to deliver, there are other costs and barriers to restarting supply chains even under the best of circumstances.
And now, the markets find themselves at a point where a partial restart is occurring, which will kick off a rush for vessel space, jam up ports, and further complicate inventory planning.

What are the challenges to restarting supply chains?

With production halted at many Chinese factories, manufacturing had largely stopped. To get things started and shipments moving again, materials, employees, and facilities need time to ramp up, which can take weeks. It’s not as simple as turning on the lights in the building. This is where business stands today with the new agreement.

The administrative side of restarting production is complicated, too. Agreements and PO’s will need to be reopened or renegotiated. Manufacturing and importing costs may differ depending on how the tariffs and new trade agreements are settled, so budgets will need to adapt as well.
And once shipments start flowing, there will be an inevitable battle for vessel capacity. The market could face a COVID-level fight for space. This could include a return to when carriers do not honor contracts and rates skyrocket. A result could also be that smaller shippers are left with few or only bad routing options.

Also familiar from the pandemic could be container shortages and port congestion. Getting empty equipment where it’s needed and the strain placed on ports and ocean vessels will have rippling effects through the supply chain globally.

Be Prepared: Optimal logistics planning is crucial right now

Not surprisingly, supply chain planning and creating better visibility are more important than ever. Importers should (with urgency) develop better transparency through technology that enables more effective PO Management, live track and trace, and access to data analytics of supply chain activities from supplier partners through final delivery.

As supply chains restart, inventory management and visibility will be paramount, especially during the next 30-60 days.

This restart represents a daunting challenge for importers. Here are additional suggestions companies can emphasize as well.

  • Companies should work with suppliers and freight forwarding partners to account for the added lag time. As we’ve stressed already, things will take time to ramp up. Remember, at best, there will continue to be a 30–55 day delay from order to arrival, even with reduced tariffs.
  • In the early part of the restart, companies must prioritize restocking their most essential products. The difficult balance will be to find the right inventory level and avoid over- or under-ordering.
  • Stay in close contact with your freight forwarder regarding vessel space and maintain flexibility on routing options. Real-time tracking of shipments and leveraging analytics will enable flexibility and avoid disruption.
  • Clear and open communication with customers, suppliers, and freight forwarders will be the key to successfully working through the problematic restart period. Leaning on trusted partnerships and technology wherever possible will be the key.

Remaining diligent in the face of uncertainty

The 90-day tariff reprieve is a big win for companies, and hopefully a step towards larger and more permanent tariff reductions. Supply chains can be flexible, nimble, and adaptable… but don’t move at the speed of trade policy. Tariff uncertainty is here to stay for now, but trade is starting, at least partially. The best approach for companies right now is to focus on two things.

First are baby steps to get things moving, but know that the playing field will likely change again. The second and long-term priority is building greater supply chain preparedness. Part of that needs to be recognition that the road to full recovery will be slow and take time. Planning should start now, regardless of the timing, which is out of everyone’s control. Implementing the right technology, setting proper expectations with customers, suppliers, and other partners, and engaging more deeply with your freight forwarder should all be priorities. With a restart underway, a lot will happen very quickly, even if the freight itself starts to move slowly.