What Direction Are We Heading?

In this week’s Roar: Container imports remain weak, supply chain stress is on the rise, new metrics for choosing suppliers, stabilized air freight rates, and the impact of new EU emissions regulations.

U.S. container import demand is expected to remain weak at least until early fall, as retailers pull back on restocking due to persistent Iran-related instability and economic uncertainty. Despite predictions of a short-lived year-over-year uptick in May and June, future forecasts point to subdued cargo volumes. Proceed with caution as the industry heads into the second half of 2026, as inflation and geopolitical risks persist. There is little reason to be optimistic that the Strait of Hormuz will open any time soon.

Global supply chain stress is on the rise again, fueled by the energy crisis and ongoing disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. Several key indices are now registering their highest readings since the pandemic, a reflection of tighter capacity, longer delivery times, and escalating transportation and warehousing costs. While COVID-era peaks haven’t been hit, ongoing supply constraints and inflation risks are forcing many countries’ central banks to proceed with caution.

Volatile tariffs and rising trade barriers have become the norm, rendering traditional sourcing based on the lowest cost outdated. When choosing suppliers, procurement leaders have begun using tariff-adjusted landed costs, a dynamic metric that accounts for fluctuating duties, shipping, and scenario planning. It’s an approach that’s still fairly rare among smaller firms, but it creates more resilient, flexible supply chains and ensures sourcing strategies remain robust even amid unpredictable policies and geopolitical change.

Global air freight rates stabilized last week after two months of sharp gains. The Baltic Air Freight Index rose just 0.4% week on week, but remained up 35.8% year on year, largely due to ongoing geopolitical disruptions. Asia-origin rates were mixed, with some declines from China, while US outbound prices surged.

Europe’s aging shortsea fleet is staring down looming turbulence, namely, stricter EU emissions regulations expected by 2028. They threaten to squeeze smaller ship operators that are already struggling with expensive financing. Fleet modernization is way behind, with many vessels over 20 years old and few new buildings on order. With no easy access to capital, some operators will likely exit the trade, which risks further problems for the market.

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights below.