The Hamster Wheel is Here to Stay

In this week’s Roar: The MOU and ocean rates, global oil inventories, EU tariffs on US imports, the outlook for global supply chains, and the American Supply Chain Sovereignty Initiative.

What can supply chains expect now that a “Memorandum of Understanding” is set to open the Strait of Hormuz? Most would expect an eventual decline in elevated ocean rates that have been driven by limited capacity and fuel surcharges. In an early positive sign from last week, several Iranian fuel tankers began transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. That is hopefully a glimpse of the improvements to come. However, a return to anything close to normal shipping routines and lower prices is still months away, since the process of returning capacity and bunker supply to the global ocean network will be gradual. The week ended on a down note, however, as planned talks between the U.S. and Iran scheduled for Friday were canceled.

A warning from the International Energy Agency. The war with Iran and the resulting supply shock have tanked global oil inventories. However, the diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran should soon lessen that constraint. The IEA predicts the pendulum will swing the other way, triggering a post-war supply rebound that could drive a major oil glut and a significant overhang by 2027, ultimately lowering prices.

Lawmakers in the EU have approved cuts to tariffs on many US imports, which fulfills a key part of last year’s EU-U.S. trade agreement and helps to ward off a new tariff conflict. It’s a move that brings relief to exporters and supply chains while also extending some duty-free imports. That said, questions remain about U.S. follow-through on its end of the deal.

The 2026 State of Logistics Report is highlighting ongoing volatility as the defining feature of today’s global supply chains. This new market reality has replaced predictability as the top priority for companies. U.S. business logistics costs currently total $2.4 trillion, or 7.8% of GDP. But geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and worker shortages are all driving up costs even more, forcing the industry to prioritize resilience, digital investments, and AI adoption. The report states that any measure of success now hinges on continuous adjustment, agility, automation, and end-to-end visibility in an environment that is subject to unrelenting change.

The Department of Transportation is launching something called the American Supply Chain Sovereignty Initiative. It features a high-visibility dashboard to better connect cargo hubs with industry stakeholders like carriers and retailers. The goal is to accelerate cargo movement, lower logistics costs, prevent bottlenecks, and build on previous efforts that were made to improve data sharing and national supply chain resilience. Anything that increases connectivity and visibility across supply chains is a positive in our book!

For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights below.