The Weekly Roar
In this week’s Roar: Efforts to limit tariff repayments, rising Chinese exports, how weak oil demand is limiting price spikes, the EU’s plan to improve the maritime sector, and a positive outlook for U.S. carriers.
Tariffs are back in the headlines, but with the courts as their backdrop. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled last week that the Trump administration may continue collecting 10% Section 122 tariffs while legal challenges continue. The court reasoned that if the tariffs are ultimately found unlawful, refunds with interest would adequately compensate importers for any harm caused by the payments. The tariffs, which were imposed in February after the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, are currently set to expire on July 24. On the refund side, CBP is working to expand its CAPE portal to cover finally liquidated entries and reconciliation entries, which together represent roughly $40 billion in potential refunds. The agency is targeting late June for the reconciliation phase and late July for finally liquidated entries. However, a DOJ appeal challenging the court’s jurisdiction to order universal refunds could complicate that timeline, particularly for importers who have not filed their own lawsuits. A hearing before the Court of International Trade (CIT) last week included arguments from both sides on the appeal, but no ruling has been issued.
China’s exports were up in May, rising 19.4%, driven by soaring AI- and high-tech-related shipments. Exports to the U.S. jumped 35.4% (YoY), which is the fastest growth in five years. The technology-fueled momentum signals China’s resilience in the manufacturing and export sectors, but some economists caution that weakening domestic demand and job losses could limit sustained gains going forward.
Increased fuel costs are a primary impact of the conflict in Iran, but they may have peaked for now. The EIA is expecting weak global demand in 2026 to limit price spikes from ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and now projects demand to fall by 1.1 million barrels per day compared with 2025. Supplies are tight, inventories are low, and high fuel prices and conservation measures are restraining demand to keep prices in check.
The EU Council has approved new strategies to boost the competitiveness, resilience, and sustainability of Europe’s maritime sector and ports. The focus is on supporting decarbonization, digitalization, and security, while at the same time strengthening supply chains and industrial capabilities. The goal is to secure Europe’s leadership in green shipping and port innovation while tackling workforce and infrastructure challenges across its member states.
The latest FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index rose to its highest level (11.6) in over four years, signaling a strong market for U.S. carriers. It’s not just high fuel costs driving up the index. Increasing freight rates and tight capacity have been the biggest factors pushing the index to this peak. Shippers should take note: Experts expect robust, carrier-friendly conditions to continue through the summer and remain positive for the foreseeable future.
For the rest of the week’s top shipping news, check out the article highlights below.
