Author Archives: Admin

ByAdmin

4 Factors Impacting Maritime Shipping’s Slow Switch to Low Sulfur Fuels

A 2016 report by Finland estimated that failure to reduce sulfur oxide emissions from ships would contribute to more than 570,000 additional premature deaths worldwide between 2020-2025. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided to take action. The result was IMO 2020, which sharply reduces acceptable sulfur content from a maximum of 3.5 percent to 0.5 percent.

Even though the IMO 2020 rule takes effect on January 1, 2020, ship owners have not been quick to switch over. Here’s why.

1)    Dropping cost of high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO)

With HSFO ceasing to be a fuel option for most ships (those without scrubbers, see below) on January 1, 2020, suppliers are doing everything they can to sell it. Even with supplies falling fast, prices remain very low. In some areas the price of HSFO has dropped by as much as 30 percent, making it a much cheaper alternative to compliant fuels.

It looks like many ship owners will continue to use HSFO until supply dries up completely or the year ends, whichever comes first. As Stephen Jew, director of global refining and marketing at IHS Markit said in an interview with JOC, “There’s no incentive for carriers to burn it yet. They’re waiting for the very last minute.”

2)    Dependable track record of motor gasoil (MGO)

The easiest and most conservative course of action for ship owners will be to switch to MGO, the equivalent of heating oil. Low-sulfur MGO is already in use in designated emission control areas, where the sulfur content standard is currently 0.10 percent. That requirement will not change under IMO 2020, though new areas may be designated as emission control areas.

The quandary for ship owners is that the low-sulfur fuels now in production are priced significantly less than MGO. But they have no experience with these fuels. They have to decide whether to go with the lower-priced fuel or the one they know they can depend on.

3)    Questions about very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO)

There has been very little demand for VLSFO to date. With the exception of some parts of Taiwan and in small emission control area zones in China, there is virtually no market for VLSFO. As explained above, there is no demand VLSFO today because of the extremely low cost of HSFO. But ship owners also have questions about VLSO.

No one doubts that ships will run on VLSFO, that has already been proved. But what will be the short- and long-term effects on the ships themselves? Will there be an impact on maintenance requirements? Will it cause parts to break down that are not affected by long-relied-on fuels like MGO and HFSO?

As the head of one freight shipping executive put it, “It would not be acceptable to have even one ship drifting powerless at the mercy of the ocean.”

4)    Use of scrubbers

The one way that ships will be able to continue to use HSFO will be if they are equipped with exhaust gas cleaning systems (EGCS) known as scrubbers. By removing sulfur oxide from the ship’s engine and boiler gases to a point equivalent to the reduced sulfur limit, scrubbers comply with IMO 2020.

However, scrubbers use a lot of water, which needs to be discharged as wastewater after use. IMO guidelines for wastewater discharge, last updated in 2015, are currently under review. A change in the guidelines could result in unanticipated costs for ship owners using scrubbers. Also, some ports have already banned wastewater discharge.

IHS Markit estimates the number of ships fitted for scrubbers will reach 2,600-2,700 in 2020.

It’s important to note that ships powered by liquid natural gas or biofuels will not be affected by IMO 2020. An increase in the use of LNG to power ships is anticipated.

Expect cost increases

Whether ship owners choose to install scrubbers or change fuels, the additional costs to the container shipping industry are expected to be in the $10 billion to $15 billion range. Naturally, a portion these cost increases (if not all) will be passed on to shippers.

At this point it looks like we are in for an adjustment period until a new “normal” is established. As things change, Jaguar Freight will keep you informed.

If you have questions or concerns about how IMO 2020 will affect your shipments, don’t hesitate to call your Jaguar Freight agent at (516) 600-0170 or  send us a message.

ByAdmin

EU Large Civil Aircraft Final Product List

Note 1: This list of products subject to additional duties is provided for information purposes only. The definitive product coverage will be determined by amendments to the HTSUS that USTR will publish in an upcoming Federal Register notice. The effective date of the additional duties is October 18, 2019.

Note 2: As specified below, in certain cases, the product description defines and limits the scope of the additional duties. Otherwise, and unless explicitly stated to the contrary, the product descriptions are provided for informational purposes only, and do not limit the scope of the additional duties. In the product descriptions, the abbreviation “nesoi” means “not elsewhere specified or included”. Any questions regarding the scope of a particular HTS statistical reporting number should be referred to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

Download Section 301 Investigation – EU Large Civil Aircraft Final Product List

If you’re interested in learning how Jaguar Freight can help you navigate the scope of additional import duties, contact us today.

ByAdmin

Mexico: An Increasingly Attractive Option for Sourcing US-Bound Goods

According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, at $611 billion, Mexico was the third-largest trade partner of the U.S. in 2018. Only China ($737.1 billion) and Canada ($714 billion) ranked higher.

In 2019, the intersection of three circumstances points to the likelihood that trade with Mexico will increase significantly in the coming years. Those three circumstances are:

  1.  The ongoing trade war with China showing no signs of abating
  2.  Repercussions of the US-China trade war in Southeast Asia
  3.  A new trade deal with Mexico and Canada on the horizon

Fallout of the US-China Trade War

The U.S.-China trade war continues with no end in sight. The U.S. recently postponed new tariffs on many consumer goods from China (including cell phones, laptop computers and toys) until after the start of the Christmas shopping season. But that postponement followed quickly on the heels of the U.S. labeling China a currency manipulator, opening a new front on what had been exclusively a trade war.

Fred Bergsten, director emeritus of the Peterson Institute for International Economics said this of the action. “The trade war has now become a currency war, and the Chinese are undoubtedly going to take further action.”

Many manufacturers and suppliers have already relocated or considered moving their China operations to Vietnam, but that has prompted outcries from the Trump administration that Vietnam is an unfair trade partner. The U.S. has not ruled out tariffs on shipments sourced from Vietnam, which some observers seem as likely.

The only thing clear in the current situation is that China and Southeast Asia are becoming less stable and less inviting sources of goods and supplies as the short and long-term costs of doing business remain uncertain.

Replacing NAFTA With USMCA Promises Stability

On November 30, 2018, the United States, Mexico and Canada signed the USMCA trade agreement. Negotiations had begun in 2017 to create a new trade deal that would replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which had governed trade between the three North American countries for 24 years.

The agreement has been ratified in Mexico and Canada, but not in the United States. Democrats in the House of Representatives refuse to ratify the agreement until changes are made in the areas of labor, environment, pharmaceuticals and enforcement. Objections of this type are not unusual, and have been handled in the past in several ways.

NAFTA was not ratified until two side agreements were added: the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation and the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation.

The United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) was signed in 2007, but congressional objections to treatment governing bilateral trade of automobiles and U.S. Beef Exports delayed ratification. After several years (and a change in U.S. presidential administrations), the U.S. and Korea renegotiated the agreement to the mutual satisfaction of all stakeholders. When the agreement went into effect on March 15, 2012, it became the first free trade agreement between the United States and a major Asian economic power. It was also the largest trade deal since NAFTA.

These precedents indicate it is highly likely that the USMCA will be revised as necessary and ratified by all three nations. Given the way trade in all three countries has benefitted from NAFTA, it’s clear that the stakes are too high for there not to be an agreement.

One recent incident that points out just how desirous Mexico is of continuing free trade with the United States occurred when President Trump threatened to levy tariffs on Mexican shipments unless Mexico did more to stem the flow of illegal migration to the United States. Mexico responded immediately, meeting with U.S. representatives and outlining new steps they would take to help reduce the number of migrants entering the U.S. outside legal channels. As a result of Mexico’s cooperation, the U.S. rescinded its tariff threat.

Once the USMCA is in effect, it promises to bring another generation of stability and cost certainty to U.S.-Mexico trade relations, something that cannot be said of U.S. trade with Asian nations today.

The timing is perfect. As was published in the Journal of Commerce last year, “(Mexico’s) $1 trillion economy now has developed businesses and capital that can meet rising emerging market demand for its goods, both in the Americas and in other world regions.”

Having a Partner You Can Depend On

If you haven’t been sourcing goods and supplies from Mexico, getting started can be daunting, especially since shipping from Mexico has historically been associated with poor service and delays.
Fortunately, in Jaguar Freight you have a friend in the business that has successfully and seamlessly managed freight on the Mexico-USA trade lane for years.

In Mexico, as throughout the world, we’ve built our reputation on providing supply-chain leadership in the form of first-class logistic services. To that end, we’ve developed our own, proprietary, supply chain software solutions — such as the CyberChain™ software suite — and marry them with logistic experts in ocean, air, and truck freight to deliver excellence to our clients.

As our client, you have a personal point of contact assigned to you, so you always have one consistent voice to rely on no matter where you’re shipping.

Three Things You Should Do Now

  1.  Make sure your representatives in Washington know you support USMCA
  2.  Watch for ratification of USMCA in the US
  3.  Contact Jaguar Freight to discuss how we can meet your needs in Mexico

Given the turbulence of today’s trade environment, all importers should feel reassured to see Mexico poised to become an even more prominent — and stable — source of goods and supplies.

If you’re interested in learning how Jaguar Freight can help you with shipments from Mexico, contact us today.

ByAdmin

US Trade Representative Lists Exclusions and Additions to China Tariffs

Exclusions — Third Tranche

The first set of exclusions from the third tranche of $200 billion in Section 301 tariffs on goods from China have been announced by the U.S. Trade Representative and published in the Federal Register.

These exclusions are in effect retroactively from September 24, 2018 — the date the third tranche went into effect — and will remain in effect until August 7, 2020 (one year after their publication date).

Special product descriptions have been prepared for each of the excluded goods. To take advantage of these exclusions, goods must satisfy the full description below.

  1. Container units of plastics, each comprising a tub and lid therefore, configured or fitted for the conveyance, packing, or dispensing of wet wipes (described in statistical reporting number 3923.10.9000)
  2. Injection molded polypropylene plastic caps or lids each weighing not over 24 grams designed for dispensing wet wipes (described in statistical reporting number 3923.50.0000)
  3. Kayak paddles, double ended, with shafts of aluminum and blades of fiberglass reinforced nylon (described in statistical reporting number 3926.90.3000)
  4. High tenacity polyester yarn not over 600 decitex (described in statistical reporting number 5402.20.3010)
  5. Nonwovens weighing more than 25 g/m2 but not more than 70 g/m2 in rolls, not impregnated coated or covered (described in statistical reporting number 5603.92.0090)
  6. Pet cages of steel (described in statistical reporting number 7323.99.9080)
  7. Carts, not mechanically propelled, each with three or four wheels, of the kind used for household shopping (described in statistical reporting number 8716.80.5090)
  8. Truck trailer skirt brackets, other than parts of general use of Section XV (described in statistical reporting number 8716.90.5060)
  9. Inflatable boats, other than kayaks and canoes, with over 20 gauge polyvinyl chloride (PVC), each valued at $500 or less and weighing not over 52 kg (described in statistical reporting number 8903.10.0060)
  10. Inflatable kayaks and canoes, with over 20 gauge polyvinyl chloride (PVC), each valued at $500 or less and weighing not over 22 kg (described in statistical reporting number 8903.10.0060)

Be sure that your teams are made aware of these exclusions so you can take full advantage of them.

Exclusion requests may still be submitted through September 30, 2019. As stated in the June 24 announcement of the exclusion process, requests must address the following scenarios:

  • Whether the particular product is available only from China and specifically whether the particular product and/or a comparable product is available from sources in the United States and/or third countries.
  • Whether the imposition of additional duties on the particular product would cause severe economic harm to the requestor or other U.S. interests.
  • Whether the particular product is strategically important or related to “Made in China 2025” or other Chinese industrial programs.

If more exclusions are granted, they will be announced on a periodic basis. Watch for news of those announcements here.

Additions — Fourth Tranche

The USTR has posted the more than 5,000 products included in List 4 of the Section 301 China tariffs.  These products will be subject to an additional tariff of 10%. Certain products that appeared on the proposed list on May 17, 2019 have been removed and will not face an additional tariff of 10%.

The complete list has been broken into two sub-lists. Click the links below to see each list.

List 4A (Effective September 1, 2019)

List 4B (Effective December 15, 2019)

There will be a process for requesting exclusions, but that process has not been announced at this time.

Jaguar Freight is committed to keeping you informed. Contact us here.

ByAdmin

3 Reasons to Pause Before You Shift Sourcing from China to Vietnam

As companies impacted by U.S. tariffs on shipments from China scramble to find reliable and tariff-friendly countries of origin, shifting sourcing to Vietnam has emerged as the most popular solution.

In the first quarter of 2019, as trade was diverted to other countries, China suffered a 13.9 percent drop in exports to the United States. The biggest beneficiary of this trade diversion was Vietnam, which enjoyed a 40.2 percent increase in exports to the U.S.

But as more shipments that used to come from China now emanate from Vietnam, there are three reasons to pause before shifting your sourcing to Vietnam.

1. Vietnam could be next on the tariff hit list

The U.S. has already started taking steps to reverse its substantial trade deficit with Vietnam, and more may be on the way. Consider these points:

  • Vietnam was added to the Treasury Department’s list of possible currency manipulators in May, which could result in the application of financial penalties
  • In early July, the Commerce Department imposed duties of more than 400 percent on steel imported from Vietnam
  • On July 29th, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lightizer wrote to the Senate Finance Committee, stating that, “The United States has been clear with Vietnam that it has to take action to reduce the unsustainable trade deficit”

In June, in response to a Fox Business News question on whether he wanted to impose tariffs on Vietnam, President Trump called Vietnam, “almost the single worst abuser of everybody”.

The next action could be the imposition of tariffs on a broad range of goods from Vietnam, an action that could wipe out the benefits of shifting sourcing to Vietnam. The executive director for Southeast Asia at the US Chamber of Commerce warns that, “There is a real possibility that this administration could slap tariffs on Vietnam.”

2. Vietnam’s infrastructure poses challenges

Vietnam is a rapidly-growing nation with an inexpensive labor supply, stable government and business-friendly environment, but its infrastructure is not mature or sophisticated. Already, Vietnam’s ports, airports and roads are straining to keep up with demand as companies fleeing China set up shop in Vietnam. And the rise in demand shows no signs of abating.

More than 1,720 projects were granted investment licenses in the first half of 2019, a 26 percent spike over the previous year.

Meanwhile, the World Bank ranks Vietnam’s logistics network 39th in the world (13 places behind China). A Ho Chi Minh City metro rail project has suffered major delays and cost overruns. As the need for infrastructure improvements grows, the government hopes that foreign direct investment will ease the crunch.

A healthy supply chain relies on a healthy infrastructure. Vietnam’s may be nearing the breaking point.

3. Capacity of Vietnam’s ports is limited

Four of the five top container ports in the world are located in China. Combined, they handled just under 118 million TEU in 2018.

The top two ports in Vietnam (the only ones to make the worldshipping.org Top 50 list) combined to handle less than 10 million TEU in 2018.

If the current boom continues, Vietnam will need to expand its ports or face a capacity crunch.

The bottom line

Shifting your sourcing might be a good idea, but it also might be too soon to make that move. With such rapid growth and a trade war in progress, circumstances are bound to change. At this point, taking a pause to see what’s next might be your best option.

This is a developing story. Stay tuned for updates. If you’d like to discuss your particular circumstances with us, contact Jaguar Freight today.

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